The rivalry is heating up. No. 10 Alabama travels to Auburn tonight for the 2025 Iron Bowl, a game that carries massive implications for both programs. For the Crimson Tide, a victory secures a spot in the SEC Championship Game and keeps their College Football Playoff dreams alive. For the Tigers, it's a chance to become bowl-eligible and salvage what's been a disappointing season.
The game kicks off at 6:30 p.m. CT at Jordan-Hare Stadium, where Alabama enters as a 5.5-point favorite. But don't let that spread fool you—playing on Auburn's home field is never easy, and this matchup has all the makings of a classic rivalry battle.
The Quarterback Matchup Will Decide Everything
Former Alabama coach
Nick Saban has pinpointed the key to this game: quarterback play. Speaking on ESPN's College Gameday, Saban emphasized that the performance of Ty Simpson and Ashton Daniels will determine the outcome.
Ty Simpson's struggles have been real. After a hot start to the season as a Heisman candidate, the Alabama quarterback has seen his efficiency plummet since October 1st. He ranks just 41st in passer efficiency rating over that span and has been particularly vulnerable under pressure, with an offensive grade of 48.6 against the blitz—tied for 37th among qualified quarterbacks. Simpson also threw two interceptions against Eastern Illinois last week, a concerning sign heading into this rivalry game.
However, Saban noted that Simpson is "very accurate and very good" when he has time to read the defense. The key for Auburn's interim coach DJ Durkin will be disguising coverages and applying pressure to keep Simpson off-balance.
Auburn's Ashton Daniels presents a different challenge. The veteran quarterback sat out last week's game against Mercer but is expected to start tonight. Daniels demonstrated his dual-threat capability earlier this month with 452 total yards against Vanderbilt. Auburn may also deploy freshman Deuce Knight in certain packages—he was sensational against Mercer with 6 total touchdowns (2 passing, 4 rushing).
Alabama's Offensive Struggles Meet Auburn's Elite Defense
Alabama's running game has been a
major weakness all season, ranking 130th nationally in rushing success rate. Lead back Jam Miller has been particularly inefficient with a
32% success rate. This puts enormous pressure on Simpson to carry the offensive load through the air.
Auburn's defense, meanwhile, boasts arguably
the best rushing defense in the country, ranking No. 1 in rush defense EPA. This matchup is tailor-made to expose Alabama's offensive limitations. Expect the Crimson Tide to lean heavily on the passing game, with receivers like Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard, and Isaiah Horton shouldering the load. Tight end Josh Cuevas is out with injury, which further limits Alabama's offensive options.
Auburn's Secondary Vulnerability Could Be Alabama's Opening
While Auburn's run defense is elite,
the Tigers' secondary has struggled significantly, ranking 116th nationally in pass defense success rate. This is where Alabama can exploit Auburn's weaknesses. If Simpson has time in the pocket and can avoid pressure, he should find opportunities downfield against a vulnerable secondary.
Auburn's receiving corps—featuring elite talents Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton—has been hampered by poor quarterback play all season. Tonight's game will test whether Daniels can get these playmakers involved and keep pace with Alabama's offense.
What's at Stake
For Alabama, this is a
must-win situation. A victory secures the SEC Championship Game matchup against Georgia next week. Lose, and the Crimson Tide's playoff hopes become significantly more complicated. Saban believes "Alabama needs to win their way through it, probably, to get into the playoff."
For Auburn, the stakes are simpler but no less important:
become bowl-eligible. The Tigers are currently 5-6 overall and 1-6 in SEC play. A win keeps their postseason hopes alive.
Expert Predictions
The consensus among analysts is clear:
Alabama is favored to win. Saban, Pat McAfee, Desmond Howard, and guest picker Aiden Hutchinson all picked the Tide on College Gameday. However, Saban acknowledged the challenge: "Alabama going to the haunted house is scary to me," he said, referencing the difficulty of playing in Jordan-Hare Stadium.
One key prediction to watch: Alabama will likely throw the ball significantly more than usual due to Auburn's elite run defense, potentially pushing Ty Simpson over 31.5 pass attempts. Meanwhile, Auburn running back Jeremiah Cobb may struggle to reach 90.5 combined rushing and receiving yards if the Tigers fall behind early.
The Bottom Line
This Iron Bowl has all the ingredients for a classic rivalry game. Alabama's offensive limitations will be tested against Auburn's elite run defense, while the Tigers' secondary vulnerability could be exploited by Simpson if he has time. The quarterback play—particularly Simpson's ability to handle pressure and Daniels' dual-threat capability—will ultimately determine the winner.
Alabama is seeking its
6th consecutive Iron Bowl victory, and tonight's game could be the difference between a playoff berth and a disappointing end to the season. For Auburn, it's about salvaging a disappointing year and keeping bowl eligibility within reach.
Kickoff is at 6:30 p.m. CT. This one should be worth watching.
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Alabama vs. Auburn preview: 2 predictions for the 2025 Iron Bowl2.
Nick Saban reveals what he thinks Alabama vs. Auburn will come down to3.
Nick Saban makes pick for 2025 Iron Bowl between Alabama and Auburn4.
Alabama vs. Auburn Live Score5.
Auburn football vs Alabama predictions, odds for Iron Bowl**
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1. Alabama vs. Auburn preview: 2 predictions for the 2025 ...
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4. Alabama vs. Auburn (Nov 29, 2025) Live Score
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