Madagascar is reeling after a dramatic military coup ousted President Andry Rajoelina, plunging the island nation into a period of deep uncertainty and raising fears of renewed violence. The events, which unfolded over the past week, have left the country’s future hanging in the balance as the world watches closely.
Soldiers Seize Power Amid Escalating Unrest
On October 11, tensions in Madagascar reached a boiling point. According to sources within the Church of Madagascar, the country was on the brink of civil war as soldiers from the elite CAPSAT unit mutinied, siding with demonstrators against the government. The mutineers marched to May 13 Square—a historic flashpoint for political upheaval in the capital, Antananarivo—where they clashed with gendarmes guarding the presidential palace. Gunfire erupted, resulting in at least one soldier’s death, before the gendarmes abruptly withdrew, allowing the mutineers to take control of the square.
President Rajoelina fled the capital as the military declared him deposed. Colonel Michael Randrianirina, head of the CAPSAT, announced he would be installed as provisional Head of State on October 17, styling himself “President for the Refoundation of the Republic of Madagascar.” His platform calls for sweeping constitutional reforms and new elections, but the dissolution of the Constitutional Court by the military has created a legal and institutional vacuum that no one seems able to fill.
Streets Erupt in Celebration—But Uncertainty Reigns
Despite the chaos, many in the capital reportedly welcomed the military’s takeover, with crowds celebrating in the streets. Observers say the probability of civil war, which was estimated at
70% just days ago, has now dropped to
15%—a fragile peace that could shatter at any moment.
The African Union responded swiftly, suspending Madagascar’s membership and demanding a return to civilian rule and the organization of democratic elections.
Curfews, Canceled Flights, and Warnings for Travelers
The coup comes amid weeks of violent demonstrations across Madagascar’s major cities. Since late September, protests have escalated into shootings and looting, resulting in casualties and widespread disruption. Authorities have imposed dusk-to-dawn curfews in Antananarivo and other urban centers, and further restrictions could be announced without warning.
Antananarivo-Ivato International Airport remains open, but several flights have been canceled. Foreign governments are urging their citizens to avoid non-essential travel to Madagascar, citing the high risk of civil unrest and political instability. Travelers already in the country are advised to shelter in place, avoid demonstrations, and monitor local media for updates.
Media Under Pressure, Population on Edge
Madagascar’s media landscape is highly polarized, with many outlets owned by political figures. In times of crisis, radio remains the main source of news for most Malagasy people, but accusations of censorship and intimidation have increased, especially during periods of political turmoil.
What’s Next for Madagascar?
Colonel Randrianirina’s promise of constitutional reform and new elections offers a glimmer of hope, but the road ahead is fraught with danger. The dissolution of key institutions and the suspension by the African Union have left Madagascar isolated and vulnerable. Observers warn that the situation could deteriorate rapidly if a political settlement is not reached soon.
For now, the world’s eyes are on Madagascar—a nation famed for its unique biodiversity and vibrant culture, now facing one of the most perilous moments in its modern history.
Sources
1. AFRICA/MADAGASCAR - "A civil war was imminent" in Madagascar
2. Travel advice and advisories for Madagascar - Travel.gc.ca
3. Madagascar - Wikipedia
4. Madagascar | History, Population, Languages, Map, & Facts
5. Madagascar | Animals, People, and Threats | WWF
6. Madagascar's extraordinary biodiversity: Threats and opportunities
7. Africa | World Bank Group
8. Madagascar's extraordinary biodiversity: Evolution, distribution, and ...
