President Donald Trump's second administration is making an aggressive push to expand the historic Abraham Accords beyond their original four Arab signatories, with recent announcements suggesting the landmark Middle East peace framework could soon include several new countries—and potentially even Iran.
In a striking White House press conference on September 29, 2025, Trump announced that Israel had agreed to his 20-Point Gaza Peace Plan and declared that the Abraham Accords could be expanded to include additional nations, including Iran. This unexpected mention of Iran—Israel's longtime adversary—represents a dramatic shift in Middle East diplomacy and signals the administration's ambitious vision for regional transformation.
The Current Push for Expansion
The second Trump administration has been actively working to bring new countries into the fold since hostilities between Iran and Israel ended in July 2025. At that time, reports emerged that the administration was initiating direct dialogues between Israel and Syria, while also pursuing normalization with Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.
U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff has suggested that up to six countries could join the Accords, with Libya, Azerbaijan, and Armenia mentioned as potential candidates. Interestingly, Azerbaijan has reached out to Kazakhstan to gauge interest in a broader regional expansion, indicating that the normalization push could extend beyond traditional Middle Eastern boundaries.
Syria Says No—For Now
Not every country is rushing to join. In August 2025, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa publicly rejected participation in the Accords, arguing that Syria's tensions with Israel are "considerably different" from those of other Arab states. This resistance highlights the complex political calculations facing Arab leaders who must balance geopolitical interests with domestic public opinion and historical grievances.
What Made the Abraham Accords Possible
The original Abraham Accords, signed in September 2020, normalized relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. These agreements emerged from years of growing unofficial cooperation between Israel and Sunni Arab states throughout the 2010s, driven primarily by shared concerns about Iranian regional influence.
The normalization deals came with significant incentives: Morocco received U.S. recognition of its sovereignty over Western Sahara, while Sudan was removed from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism and gained access to international financial support.
Surviving the Gaza War Test
The Ultimate Stress TestThe October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel and the subsequent Gaza war represented a critical test for the Abraham Accords. Many observers predicted the agreements would collapse under the weight of Arab public opposition to Israel's military campaign.
Instead, the opposite happened. Fleur Hassan-Nahoum, the Israeli Foreign Ministry's Special Envoy for Trade and Innovation, noted that "a lot of people thought that after October 7th, it would be the beginning of the end of the Abraham Accords. And in fact, it's been the opposite".
About a month after October 7th, when the Arab League attempted to pass three boycotts against Israel and one against the United States, it was the Abraham Accords countries that vetoed these measures. Even more significantly, when Iran launched approximately 300 missiles at Israel in April 2024, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan all joined with the U.S. to defend Israel.
The Palestinian Question Remains
A Major Obstacle to ExpansionThe expansion of the Abraham Accords faces a fundamental challenge: the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In June 2023, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Israel that rising tensions with Palestinians and advancing settlement activity threatened normalization with additional Arab nations, particularly Saudi Arabia.
The Saudi Foreign Minister was explicit about this linkage, stating that "without finding a pathway to peace for the Palestinian people... any normalization will have limited benefits". This sentiment reflects broader concerns across the Arab world that normalization without progress on Palestinian statehood legitimizes Israeli occupation and abandons a core Arab cause.
Critics argue the Accords could weaken the two-state solution by allowing Israel to normalize relations without making concessions to Palestinians. The Gaza war of
2023-2024 rekindled Palestinian solidarity across the region and brought the Palestinian question back to center stage, complicating the political calculations for any Arab state considering normalization.
Shifting Geopolitical Landscape
The regional power dynamics underpinning the Abraham Accords are evolving rapidly. The 2023 Chinese-brokered rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran challenged assumptions about permanent Middle East alignments. China's emergence as a diplomatic player in the region has created new strategic options for Arab states and relativized American hegemony.
These shifts raise questions about the long-term sustainability of agreements that were largely based on anti-Iran sentiment and U.S. diplomatic leverage. As regional states develop more diverse foreign policy options, their willingness to prioritize normalization with Israel may fluctuate.
What This Means for the Region
The potential expansion of the Abraham Accords represents either a historic realignment of Middle East politics or an unstable framework built on geopolitical calculations without solid popular support. The answer likely depends on whether progress can be made on the Palestinian question.
For now, the original Abraham Accords have proven more resilient than skeptics predicted, surviving the Gaza war and even strengthening security cooperation. The formalized economic, diplomatic, and security partnerships have created new initiatives in trade, defense, energy, technology, and cultural exchange.
The coming months will reveal whether Trump's ambitious expansion plans—particularly the shocking suggestion of including Iran—represent realistic diplomacy or aspirational rhetoric. What's certain is that Middle East peace remains as complex and consequential as ever, with the Abraham Accords sitting at the center of regional transformation.
Sources
1. Abraham Accords - Wikipedia
2. The Abraham Accords at five - Atlantic Council
3. Donald Trump expects expansion of Abraham Accords soon
4. The Abraham Accords - United States Department of State
5. Trump reveals how SOON we can expect an expansion ... - YouTube
6. The Abraham Accords, A Stable Bridge in Unstable Times - IRPJ
7. The Abraham Accords – Paradigm Shift or Realpolitik?
8. Will Trump MidEast Visit Expand Abraham Accords? Israelis ... - CBN
9. The Abraham Accords: Urgent Need For Recasting – Analysis
10. The Gaza War and the Future Of the Abraham Accords
